No, 50% Of Children Will Not Be Autistic By 2050

We’re all familiar with the idea that rates of neurodivergence are rising, and that the speed is taking clinical and educational services to the brink. The Center for Disease Control in the USA report that the rates have increased from 1 in 125 in the year 2004 to 1 in 36 in 2020. That is a vast increase and the reasons are generally ascribed to improved diagnosis protocols, improved training for educators and clinicians, as well as public awareness. Similarly, the number of children with an ADHD diagnosis in the USA increased by 1 million between 2016 and 2022.

Some have suggested that the rates of ADHD / Autism itself is increasing, and search for medical reasons why this might be the case. One blogger recently stated “But if we look ahead to 2050, it’s estimated that about half of all kids will have an ASD diagnosis.” Now, the author themselves confesses that their article is unsubstantiated, but if the statistic is already starting to do the rounds, it has the potential to harm. Let’s unpack where it came from, and learn a lesson about how easy it is to fall into alarmist, misleading claims.

The reference cited in the blog is much more equivocal, asserting a hypothetical point: “If the current rate of increase continues, half of all children will be considered to have an ASD by the year 2050.” This is very different from “an estimate”, and shows the nature of how meaning gets lost in translation. However, the subtext here is that Autism rises are something to be worried about, that they insinuate ill health and that such rises represent a potential crisis or major change to human functioning.

Within the neurodiversity paradigm, we challenge that neurodivergence is a medical symptom of illness. We assert the right to be cognitively diverse and to have our unusual neurotypes respected as part of the varied tapestry of human thinking. We have argued that we are not broken and do not need fixing. These arguments land badly in our community even before we have considered the knock on effects of catastrophizing and inflaming the stigma that “everyone is Autistic now” or that “we all need to be afraid of rising neurodivergence”.

The source article asserts that Autism is caused by inflammation from poor diet, hence the exponential rise and the potential of this rise to be limitless as food chains become ever industrialized. The litany of pseudo-medical claims as to the ‘cause’ of Autism / ADHD / Tourettes, based on correlation rather than causality, has a long tail of harm to our community. At best, it leads to parent blaming and pressure to enforce restrictive diets on people who are known to struggle with food and nutrition. At worst it starts a vaccination crisis which has led to outbreaks of diseases, significant harm and increased mortality.

Dr Ludmilla Praslova’s book, The Canary Code, likens neurodivergent people to the proverbial canaries in the mineshaft – the birds who would run out of oxygen faster than humans and so served as a warning to miners on air quality. If we listen to the sensitivities of neurodivergent people, we have an early warning system for all of us. Praslova’s book clearly articulates how to capitalize on this throughout our organizations, in terms of human resources, psychological safety, communication and culture.

Praslova’s metaphor is also useful in helping us understand why the disease model continues to cycle through the narratives on rising cases of neurodivergence, even as it causes harm. Neurodivergent people may be more sensitive, and the evidence to support this is consistent. Neurodivergence does indeed overlap with inflammatory, chronic health conditions. There is a cooccurring impact on sleep, which in turn leads to difficulties in learning, managing emotions and communication. Inflammatory disorders are indeed linked to pollution and poor quality diet and lifestyle. But these observations are conflated; we cannot infer that these sensitivities cause the entire experience of neurodivergence. To do so would be a massive over interpretation of complex data.

Neurodivergent people are a long term feature of the human gene pool. The extent to which we experiencing inflammation, mental distress, sleep disorders and marginalization is potentially a much more recent effect. As scientists, the more we learn, the more we are likely to say “it depends”, and to appreciate complexity. There is unlikely to be one answer to neurodivergence, or one answer to inflammation. These are multi-factorial, complex adaptive neurotypes and systemic responses.

Until the long term, multi-disciplinary research agendas give us solid answers, our job in diversity and inclusion is to avoid over interpreting statistics that can lead to stigmatising, one sided narratives. However complexity is less welcome in public debate and social media information sharing.

Businesses need steer clear of promoting misleading claims about a vulnerable community. To be clear, there is no evidence to suggest that 50% of children will be Autistic by 2050. A few clicks revealed the true nature of this faulty statistic and indeed the problematic assumptions on which it was based. We need to check our sources before amplifying hyperbolic statistics, particularly in this era of over sharing and under editing.

Our focus in employment should be on what we can do to help, rather than pontificating about genetics and being judgemental about lifestyles. Healthy work environments and promotion of work life balance to nurture good sleep and self-care is a good idea for all employees. All those who are most vulnerable will benefit more, including but not limited to neurodivergent people. That’s the take home message.

To read more of Nancy Doyle’s Forbes articles, click here.